From principles is derived probability but truth or certainty is obtained only from facts.
What is being talked about now is the probability of the Sharon government launching an attack against Lebanon to eliminate the resistance of Hezbollah by using the American war against Iraq. But of course in this case we will certainly fight with all our strength.
Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.
The scientific imagination always restrains itself within the limits of probability.
The future is too interesting and dangerous to be entrusted to any predictable reliable agency. We need all the fallibility we can get. Most of all we need to preserve the absolute unpredictability and total improbability of our connected minds. That way we can keep open all the options as we have in the past.
The vast majority of large scale change efforts fail. Which means that the probability that you have actually experienced a failure and your people know that and are pessimistic therefore about trying something again is very high.
Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.
For target shooting that's okay. Get a license and go to the range. For defense of the home that's why we have police departments.